If I were To

Re

Design

AllTrails
Mobile App
ALLTRAILS CASE STUDY -- DEC '25
Building Safety &
Community Through
Platform Expansion
Transforming AllTrails from a trail discovery app into a comprehensive outdoor safety and commerce platform.

+15% user retention

First-mover advantage

Outdoor guide marketplace

STRATEGIC CONTEXT: WHY THIS, WHY NOW
The Market Inflection Point
Three simultaneous shifts created a unique 12-month window:
Supply Shock

REI shut down their $50M+ guided experiences program (June 2024), leaving 500+ certified guides without a platform and thousands of customers without trusted access to outdoor education.

Safety Crisis

Western US wildfires increased 400% since 1970. In 2024 alone, 68% of our Western users canceled trips due to air quality—but our app showed "perfect weather" because we didn't surface AQI data.

Competitive Vulnerability

Google Maps added hiking trails (March 2024), Strava launched route discovery (July 2024). Our differentiation as "just a trail database" was eroding.

THE STRATEGIC QUESTION
How do we defend our moat while the competition treats trails as a commodity feature?

Build what only AllTrails can build—a trust-based platform that leverages our 65M users' intent signals to connect outdoor experiences, not just catalog them.

PROBLEM DEEP-DIVE: THREE USER JOBS-TO-BE-DONE

Help Me Hike Safely in Wildfire Season

"I drove 3 hours to Lake Tahoe only to find the air quality was hazardous. AllTrails showed perfect weather but didn't mention the smoke. I felt betrayed—isn't safety your whole thing?"

— User Interview #47, Premium subscriber
The Opportunity
xx%
Trip cancellations
xx%
Avg wasted drive time
xx%
NPS detractor mentions

Help Me Recover What I Lost  (and Help Others)

"Lost my $300 Garmin watch on Angels Landing. Posted on 6 Facebook groups, Reddit, called the park. Nothing. I'd pay $100 to get it back but there's no system."

— Reddit r/hiking, 847 upvotes
The Opportunity
$2.3B in outdoor gear lost annually with no structured recovery system
Why This Beats a Gear Marketplace: Creates stickiness through emotional investment. Users who post lost items check app 4.2x more frequently. No operational burden—we're matching people, not handling physical goods.

Help Me Learn Outdoor Skills Safely

"I want to try backpacking but don't know where to start. REI classes are gone. I'd pay $200 for a trusted first experience."

— User Interview #47, Premium subscriber
WHY ALLTRAILS WINS
Demand signals: Users downloading "Half Dome" trail = they're planning to hike it = perfect moment to offer guide
Trust transfer: AllTrails verification >> random marketplace profile
Network effects: More guides → more trail coverage → more bookings → more guides
SOLUTION DESIGN & STRATEGIC DECISIONS

Air Quality Integration

AirNow API + PurpleAir sensors + NOAA smoke forecasts with color-coded AQI badge on every trail page, push notifications when saved trails exceed AQI 100, and 48-hour forecasts.

KEY DECISION: FREE VS. PREMIUM
Made it free for all users. Safety features = brand moat.
Trade-off: Forgo ~$2M annual premium revenue to build trust that enables marketplace monetization

AllTrails Marketplace

Lost & Found (10% commission)
GPS-based matching with reward escrow. Users post lost items, finders claim rewards.
Guide Marketplace (15% commission)
GPS-based matching with reward escrow. Users post lost items, finders claim rewards.Verified guides create trail-specific experiences. Strict certification requirements.
KEY DECISION: FREE VS. PREMIUM
Made it free for all users. Safety features = brand moat.
Trade-off: Forgo ~$2M annual premium revenue to build trust that enables marketplace monetization

Critical Strategic Decisions

DECISION
CHOICE
RATIONALE
Launch Timing
Both features together
Shared infrastructure (notifications, payments). Safety builds trust for marketplace.
Commission Rate
Lost & Found: 10%
Guides: 15%
Low enough to feel fair, high enough to cover fraud prevention and support sustainable business.
Geographic Rollout
California → West → National
Concentrate supply. Highest wildfire impact + largest user base + most displaced REI guides.
Guide Verification
Strict (WFR + insurance)
Quality over quantity. Trust compounds exponentially. Better 100 great guides than 1,000 sketchy ones.

North Star Metric

Trips Completed Safely

Users who check air quality + complete their planned hike. A canceled trip due to good intel = success. A completed trip in bad air = failure.

12-MONTH BUSINESS IMPACT

$X.XM
Incremental ARR
Lost & Found + Guide commissions + Retained subscription revenue
+YY%
WAU Growth
From Safety Features
+ZZ%
+ 6mo Month Retention.
Air quality checkers stay engaged
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Engineering delightful solutions to problems that matter.

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